Designing a 2026-Ready Major Gifts Plan in an Uncertain Economy
Scaling Major Gifts. Strategies, action steps, and ideas for scaling major gifts by Tammy Zonker, Major Gift Expert & Keynote Speaker.
If 2026 revenue targets landed on your desk before anyone checked the donor pipeline, you have plenty of company.
Nonprofits are being pushed to “do more with less” while a smaller group of donors is carrying more of the load.
You feel the pressure to be bold, but you also see the reality in your database.
This week’s topic Designing a 2026-Ready Major Gifts Plan in an Uncertain Economy is about designing a plan that honors both.
What to focus on next week
Start with reality, not wishes. Pull a 3–5 year history of major gift revenue, number of donors at each giving level, and your current active portfolio. Look at actual retention and upgrade patterns, not just the “goal spreadsheet.” Bonus points if your organization is embracing predictive AI to inform this work.
Build a right-sized pipeline for 12–18 months. Use a gift range chart to map how many gifts you need at each level to hit your 2026 goal, then ask: “Do we actually have enough qualified prospects at each level, given our staff capacity?” If not, adjust gifts, timelines, or staffing before you sign off.
Plan for three scenarios, not one. Sketch a base, target, and stretch scenario for major gift revenue over the next 12–18 months, based on donor behavior, the economy, and institutional funding risk. Define clear “tripwires” that tell you when to pivot (for example, if top donor renewals run 15% behind by Q2).
Base scenario: This is your confident number. It’s what you can raise if everything goes as expected, your renewals come in at their usual rate, pledge payments are completed, and most of your active donors renew.
Target scenario: This is the expected goal. What you’ll commit to in your official plan. It includes realistic new commitments from qualified prospects where the relationship is already strong and movement is measurable.
Stretch scenario: This is your aspirational number. The upper boundary of what’s possible if things go exceptionally well. Maybe two or three dream gifts close ahead of schedule, or a long-cultivated prospect makes a transformational gift.
Concentrate on truly workable portfolios. In this economy, a shorter, well-qualified list is often more productive than an overstuffed portfolio you cannot touch. Prioritize donors with both capacity and demonstrated affinity, and right-size caseloads so each prospect can receive meaningful, personal attention.
Bake agility into the plan. Instead of a static 12‑month document, use rolling 90‑day sprints within a 12–18 month framework, with pre-agreed adjustments if certain metrics trend up or down. This lets you respond quickly to donor shifts, policy changes, or funding losses without rebuilding the whole plan.
A quick story
I worked with an organization that walked into planning with a single number: “We need 4 million from major gifts next year.”
No one could explain how.
When we broke it into three scenarios, something important happened. The base scenario showed that with their current portfolio and behavior, they were on track for about 2.7 million. The stretch scenario (with intentional mid-level to major moves and two transformational offers) pushed them to 3.5 million. The safeguard scenario showed how they could still land at 2.3 million if a couple of large gifts slipped.
Two things changed: leadership finally saw the gap, and the major gifts team finally had a realistic story to tell about what it would take to close it.
Ambition did not disappear. It got anchored in reality.
Try this next week
Run a 60-minute “reality check” on your goal. Create or update a simple gift range chart for your 2026 major gifts goal. Highlight any levels where you clearly do not have enough realistic prospects, and mark those for discussion with your CEO or board finance chair.
Right-size one portfolio. Choose one major gift officer (it might be you) and sort the portfolio into three tiers based on true likelihood to give at your defined major gift level in the next 12–18 months. Move “nice to know” names to a different pipeline, and keep only what can be meaningfully managed.
Sketch your three scenarios. On a single page, outline your base, target, and stretch major gift revenue for 2026. For each, list 2–3 assumptions and 1–2 tripwires that would tell you it is time to shift strategies or spending. Bring this to your next leadership or development committee meeting.
Want to take a deeper dive?
If you want to go deeper, this week’s Intentional Fundraiser Podcast episode is: “Your 2026 Major Gifts Plan: Aspirational but Realistic.”
In the episode, I walk through how to turn your gift range chart, portfolio right‑sizing, and three-scenario thinking into a usable 12–18 month plan, even if your board is anxious about the economy.
You will hear practical language for resetting expectations with leadership, plus examples of how teams are using rolling forecasts instead of rigid annual plans.
Listen to the full episode now.
If this topic hits close to home, hit reply and tell me: Where does your 2026 major gifts goal feel most out of sync with your current pipeline?
You are doing important, emotionally demanding work in a time when the ground keeps shifting. Keep going with courage and clarity.
I’d love to hear from you
Hit reply and tell me:
Are your 2026 major gifts numbers already set?
And if so, do you have more than one scenario behind them?
You are carrying a lot into this next year. The way you plan can either add weight or give you back some breathing room.
You deserve the breathing room.
Keep scaling,
Tammy Zonker
Author of Calling All Heroes
Founder of Fundraising Transformed
President of Modern Institute for Charitable Giving
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