122. Your 2026 Major Gifts Plan: Aspirational but Realistic
About this episode
Creating a major gifts plan that’s both aspirational and realistic is more challenging than ever in 2026.
The economy feels uncertain, AI is rewriting how we research and communicate, and donor patience for vague plans is shrinking. At the same time, boards and executive teams are setting big, bold goals, often without factoring in the human, relational time it takes to cultivate transformational gifts.
If you’ve ever felt that pull between wanting to say yes to your leadership’s ambition and knowing your current portfolio can’t stretch that far yet, you have plenty of company.
I’ve been in this work for nearly 30 years, and I’ve seen how easily we can slip into one of two traps: playing it too safe or overpromising to please others. Neither position honors your donors or your team.
Today, I want to walk you through a practical framework that helps you set aspirational goals that are grounded in data, strengthened by alignment, and fueled by possibility.
It’s a mindset and a method that helps you scale major gifts in a healthy way.
The Three-Scenario Planning Framework
The simplest and most effective way I’ve found to balance optimism and reality is to build a three-scenario plan: base, target, and stretch.
Here’s what that means:
Base scenario. Your confident number. This reflects what you can reasonably count on through pledges, renewals, and highly engaged donors who reliably give each year.
Target scenario. This is your likely goal: what you’ll plan around and communicate internally. It represents realistic new commitments from qualified donors and prospects with active movement toward a gift.
Stretch scenario. Your aspirational vision. This is your “what if” scenario: what happens if a few exceptional opportunities come through sooner than expected.
When you show your board or CEO these three tiers, suddenly you’re not just presenting a single number, they can see the landscape of possibility and the associated risk.
It moves the conversation from pressure to partnership.
Your base number grounds everyone in what’s secure; your stretch number keeps the horizon exciting.
In my experience, this framework not only calms leadership anxiety, it empowers them to participate in closing the gap.
Why This Approach Works in 2026
Planning in 2026 looks different than it did even two or three years ago. Here’s why this approach feels so relevant right now:
Volatility is normal. Global and local conditions shift fast: policy changes, donor portfolios, even the psychology of giving. Having a modeled base provides stability, while your stretch goals keep you adaptive.
AI creates decision fatigue. Leaders are being bombarded with data dashboards and projections. The clarity of this simple framework helps you cut through the noise.
Donor expectations are evolving. They want clarity and transparency. Goals built on real relationship data allow you to communicate progress with credibility.
Action Steps for a Grounded Yet Bold 2026 Plan
If you want to start bringing more realism and confidence into your planning this week, here are 3 actions you can take in the next 60 minutes:
Run a quick portfolio analysis.
Open your donor list and identify your top 25 prospects or donors. Note where each falls: renewal, cultivation, solicitation, or stewardship. Then estimate likely 2026 revenue by status. That gives you the foundation for your base and target scenarios.
Use AI to summarize your potential.
If you track notes from donor interactions in your CRM, try using a secure AI summarization tool to extract patterns: who’s showing increased interest, decreased responsiveness, or new capacity cues. You’ll gain clarity on your most promising stretch opportunities.
Draft a one-page visual of your three scenarios.
No fancy slides needed. Just list:
Base = X (what’s secure)
Target = Y (what’s probable)
Stretch = Z (what’s aspirational)
Take that to your next check-in with your executive director. Use it as a conversation starter about alignment and support, rather than waiting to be handed an arbitrary goal.
You can do all of that in under an hour.
It’s not about having a flawless plan. It’s about anchoring your planning in truth and transparency.
Avoid the “Too Much, Too Fast” Trap
One mistake I’ve seen repeatedly (and, full disclosure, made early in my career) is saying yes to goals that surpass our capacity to cultivate relationships with integrity.
If your portfolio feels bloated, it’s okay to recalibrate. Generally, a strong major gifts officer should manage no more than 75–90 qualified relationships, and within that, only about 30–40 in active cultivation at a time.
Too many fundraisers are spread so thin chasing unrealistic annual targets that they never get to deepen the few relationships that could transform their mission long-term.
AI can help lighten the load by drafting follow-up emails for your review, summarizing meeting notes, or preparing donor research briefs, but the emotional labor of this work is still human. Your empathy, your presence, and your intentionality remain irreplaceable.
A Quick Reflection
If you could describe your organization’s 2026 major gifts plan in three words, what would they be?
Bold? Grounded? Hopeful? Unsure?
Whatever your answer, know that reflection is the first step toward alignment.
I encourage you to take 30 minutes this week to define your base, target, and stretch scenarios, and share them with someone on your leadership team. It might change the entire tone of your planning discussions.
I’d love to know: How are you approaching 2026 goal-setting in your team or organization? Connect with me on LinkedIn and let’s compare notes.
Because here’s what I believe: when fundraisers plan with courage, clarity, and compassion, we not only hit our goals; we build trust that endures.
“The way you plan your major gifts can either add weight or give you back some breathing room. You deserve the breathing room.”
Tammy Zonker, Author, Major Gift Expert & Keynote Speaker
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